Posted by Online on Dec 5th, 2014
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is almost certain that typhoon “Ruby” (international name “Hagupit”) that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early yesterday will make landfall over Eastern Samar tomorrow.
“There is now a small probability that Ruby will recurve towards Japan because the probability towards its landfall is almost certain,” PAGASA OIC Deputy Administrator for Operations and Services Dr. Landrico Dalida Jr. said.
“We can say that there is no more second scenario,” he added. PAGASA earlier considered two scenarios – either the typhoon will make landfall in Visayas or recurve north and spare the country from a direct hit.
PAGASA acting Administrator Dr. Vicente Malano said Hagupit entered the PAR at around 3 a.m. and was named Ruby.
“Ruby is forecast to make landfall over Eastern Samar on Saturday morning. We have raised storm warnings in nine provinces 36 hours in advance before the typhoon’s effects will be felt in these areas. In the next 36 hours, areas under Signal No. 1 will experience winds up to 63 kilometers per hour (kph),” Malano explained.
Before noon yesterday, PAGASA said Ruby was 860 kilometers (kms) east of Surigao City, packing maximum sustained winds of 195 kph and gustiness of up to 230 kph. It is forecast to move westnorthwest at 20 kph.
“Majority of forecasting centers have the scenario as PAGASA. Ruby will make landfall over Eastern Samar then traverse the Visayas then exit the landmass through Mindoro or northern Palawan,” PAGASA senior weather forecaster Chris Perez said.
Ruby is expected to be 395 kms east-southeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar this morning. Tomorrow morning, it is expected to be 30 kms northeast of Borongan Samar and will make landfall over Samar before noon. On morning, it is expected to be 20 kms south-southwest of Romblon.
Perez said if the typhoon maintains its present track, it will be outside the PAR by Monday evening or Tuesday morning.
He compared the strength of Ruby to typhoon “Pablo” (international name “Bopha”) that hit Davao region on December 4, 2012. Pablo has 185 kph maximum sustained winds and gustiness of up to 220 kph when it made landfall over Baganga, Davao Oriental.
Pablo is one of the strongest typhoons to directly hit the Philippines, causing massive destruction in Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley and prompted more than 100,000 people to evacuate, with the death toll reaching at least 1,000. It destroyed P42.2 billion infrastructure and agriculture.
Perez said the initial effect of Ruby, a combination of rains and gusty winds, will be felt starting tonight, particularly in Eastern Visayas. “We are not ruling out the possibility that the typhoon will intensify further before its landfall,” he pointed out.
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